Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1) Linda is a bank teller. 2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Most people guess number two, but the probability of two events occurring together is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. This problem is known as the Conjunction Fallacy.
“Life’s funny”, said an old friend when I bumped into him the other day. “Listen to this, I was born in March, yet I celebrate my birthday in August, and last February I married my mother”.
He was born in the month of August in a town named March, became a priest and married his widowed mother to her second husband in February (the month).
Using just two letters, fill in the blank letters below to make five English words. The letters are not always in the same order and the same letter may of course be used more than once. What are the words?
1. _ N T _ I N _
2. V I _ _ _ R
3. _ H _ _ L
4. _ _ _ K
5. _ _ _
A man is found dead at the end of an alley. A detective who enters the scene sees the letter X and immediately knows who killed the man and why. What did the detective conclude?
The alley is a bowling alley. The man who was killed was a pin spotter (an old profession where they would reset the pins by hand). The X was the marking on the score sheet for a strike. The detective saw the letter X and knew that the person bowled last, got a strike, and was due to bowl again. But they bowled before the pin spotter could get out of the way.