I remain calm and cool among tumult and fury, I hide treasures and creatures you could hardly fathom, I will crush those I welcome in deeply, I am dark yet beautiful.
Underwater in the deep ocean. Even when storms brew, the water deep below the surface is calm and cool. Thousands of treasures have been lost in sunken ships, and amazing creatures live at deep depths of the ocean. At extreme depths, the pressure is crushing. It is extremely dark deep in the ocean, yet also beautiful.
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1) Linda is a bank teller. 2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Most people guess number two, but the probability of two events occurring together is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. This problem is known as the Conjunction Fallacy.
You are the bus driver. At your first stop, you pick up 29 people. On your second stop, 18 of those 29 people get off, and at the same time 10 new passengers arrive. At your next stop, 3 of those 10 passengers get off, and 13 new passengers come on. On your fourth stop 4 of the remaining 10 passengers get off, 6 of those new 13 passengers get off as well, then 17 new passengers get on. What is the color of the bus driver’s eyes?
A married couple is traveling by bus on dangerous mountain roads. Midway through their journey the bus stops for snacks and a restroom break. The couple is enjoying the postcards in the store when the bus driver curtly tells them it’s past time to leave. Fifteen minutes after, the bus is hit by a mud slide and two people are killed. The couple blames themselves for the deaths. Why?
They blame themselves because they caused the bus to be late. If they had been on time, the bus would have already passed the location of the mud slide.