Imagine an HIV test that is 95% accurate (false positive rate of 5%) and around 2% of the tested population is infected with HIV. What is the probability that you actually have HIV when your test comes back positive?
A couple has two children. At least one of them is a boy. Assuming the probability of having a boy or girl is 50%, what is the probability that both children are boys?
If you answered 1/2, you’re not without comrades, but the generally accepted answer by statisticians (though not without debate) is 1/3. This is because there are four possible combinations: boy-boy, boy-girl, girl-boy and girl-girl. Since we are told one of the children is a boy (but we don’t know if it’s the first or second child), we can rule out the girl-girl combination, leaving three remaining options. Only one out of 3 is boy-boy, so we get a 1/3 chance.
The problem works out to a set of three equations: b + c + d = 22 a + c + e = 22 a + b + c + d + e = 30
Solving for c = 14, leaving d = 8 – b and e = 8 – a. In other words, c must be 14, but the other two numbers just have to add up to 8. The requirement that they be unique rules out 4 + 4, so you’re left to choose from the following combations for b + d and a + e: 0 + 8 1 + 7 2 + 6 3 + 5
Someone preserving food. The two most common ways of preserving food are canning and freezing. So when you preserve food, if you can can it, you do, otherwise you freeze it.