Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1) Linda is a bank teller. 2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Most people guess number two, but the probability of two events occurring together is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. This problem is known as the Conjunction Fallacy.
Peggy wanted to buy a talking parrot and went down to the pet shop. She bought a parrot after being assured it would repeat any word or phrase it heard. Peggy bought the parrot and took it home, but it still hadn’t said a word after a few weeks. She returned to the shop to complain, but discovered the original assurances were still accurate. Why didn’t the parrot talk?
Ida puts her coffee into the microwave, as she does every morning, for exactly two minutes. When the microwave goes off, she opens the door, but then closes the door again and sets the microwave for two more seconds. What good would two more seconds be?
A strike in bowling is good. In baseball it’s good for the pitcher but not for the batter. You can strike a match to light it. When the clock strikes one a gong sounds and when you strike a paragraph, it’s gone.
Eat (8) flush (plus) to (2) my nose (minus) tree (3) times (times) for (4) they buy dead by (divided by) too (2).
There are two answers depending on whether you calculate as you read or calculate the entire solution at the end. 8 + 2 = 10, – 3 = 7, x 4 = 28, / 2 = 14 or 8 + 2 – 3 x 4 / 2 = 10 – 6 = 4