As a result of temporary magical powers, you have made it to the Wimbledon finals and are playing Roger Federer for all the marbles. However, your powers cannot last the whole match. What score do you want it to be when they disappear, to maximize your chances of hanging on for a win?
It sounds obvious that you should ask to be ahead two sets to love (it takes 3 out of 5 sets to win
the men’s), and in the third set, ahead 5-0 in games and 40-love in the sixth game. (Probably you
want to be serving, but if your serve is like mine, you might prefer Roger to be serving the sixth
game down 0-40 so that you can pray for a double fault.)
Not so fast! These solutions give you essentially 3 chances to get lucky and win, but you can
get six chances—with three services by you and three by Roger. You still want to be up two sets
to none, but let the game score be 6-6 in the third set and 6-0—in your favor, of course—in the
tiebreaker.
A woman gave a man a list of things she needed to buy at the store. The man gave the list back to the woman and she turned red with embarrassment. Why?
An arrow. It has feathers and its nest (a quiver) is usually carried an archer’s back. The arrow flies when released, but will always land somewhere to rest.
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
1) Linda is a bank teller.
2) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
Most people guess number two, but the probability of two events occurring together is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone. This problem is known as the Conjunction Fallacy.
What does man love more than life
Fear more than death or mortal strife
What the poor have, the rich require,
and what contented men desire,
What the miser spends and the spendthrift saves
And all men carry to their graves?
1. Temper or anger are signs of weakness.
2. The money is for Edward.
3. You’ll find I got it elsewhere.
4. One dancer, I see, is out of step.
5. “I’m a gent and a lady’s man,” he said.